How does the odds simulator work?

Each team's outright price (e.g. Spain c.5.50) is converted to a strength score = 1 / price. Every match is resolved by random sampling weighted by relative strengths. We simulate the full tournament — groups + knockouts — 10,000 times and report how often each team reached each round. This is the Bradley-Terry pairwise comparison model used in chess Elo and tennis ATP ratings.

What is "Edges Edge"?

Model probability minus implied probability. Positive = the model thinks the team is more likely to win than the price suggests; negative = the team is over-priced. Edges treats edges ≥ +2% as value bets and ≤ -2% as fades.

odds simulator · 10,000 monte carlo runs

Who actually wins the World Cup?

Real SA-licensed prices. Ten thousand simulations. The math, not the marketing.

Click to run.

How.

Each team's strength = 1 / outright price. Each match resolves by random sampling weighted on relative strength (Bradley-Terry — the model behind chess Elo). Group stage runs as a 6-game round-robin; top 2 + four best 3rd-placed teams advance to the seeded R32 → R16 → QF → SF → Final knockout. Ten thousand tournaments simulated, results aggregated. Edges Edge = model champion % minus normalised implied %. Positive = value bet candidate; negative = fade.

Who actually wins the World Cup?

Champion probability — ranked.

The full simulation.

How.